AUGUST 4, 2000 
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Mortality Rates Still Dropping, Quicker Than Expected

Not only are mortality rates dropping, they are dropping even more quickly than we thought. According to the National Institute on Aging, the life expectancy of people in the so-called "G-7" (Group of 7) industrialized nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) may be greater than previously thought. A new mortality forecast suggests that by 2050, the populations in these countries may be living up to 96 months longer than official estimates now predict.

The analysis presents median estimates of life expectancy in 2050 in each country, contrasting them with current government estimates.

Country Previous Revised

U.S.           80.45     82.91

Germany   81.50     83.12

U.K.           82.50     83.79

Canada      81.67     85.26

Italy           82.50     86.26

France       83.50     87.81

Japan         82.95     90.91

These differences in forecasted life expectancy influence the ratio between the population over 65 to the population ages 20 to 64, which is important for planning retirement and health care systems.
Source: AgeVenture NewsService
www.demko.com 7-31-2000